Hi Sharon,

"One swallow doesn't make a summer". "If the ash before the oak, we're in
for a soak, if the oak before the ash, we're in for a splash". Works more
often than not in foretelling the weather for the coming summer.

As every dairy farmer knows, most cows from an early age, like many humans,
suffer from rheumatism. That is why they sit down in grassland before the
onset of rain. We have been able to produce cows that give very heavy milk
yields, but not alas eradicate their rheumatics. That unfortunately for the
cow is of secondary importance.

Bill Brewer

In article , Bill
Brewer writes
Hi Sharon,

"One swallow doesn't make a summer". "If the ash before the oak, we're in
for a soak, if the oak before the ash, we're in for a splash". Works more
often than not in foretelling the weather for the coming summer.

Err, it can't possibly work - ever! The leaf appearance time of trees is
to do with the past and current conditions and is nothing whatsoever to
do with the weather to come. How could it possibly be otherwise? The
same applies to the autumn berry crop which a similar old wives' tale
suggests that it presages a hard winter to come.

As every dairy farmer knows, most cows from an early age, like many humans,
suffer from rheumatism.

With respect, humans rarely suffer from rheumatism "from an early age".
I'm interested that you say that cows do. Why is that, do you think?

That is why they sit down in grassland before the
onset of rain. We have been able to produce cows that give very heavy milk
yields, but not alas eradicate their rheumatics. That unfortunately for the
cow is of secondary importance.

Hmm. How long before the rain do they sit down? How often do they sit
down and no rain appears? How much rain is needed to make them sit down?
Are you saying that they never sit down in periods of drought, such as
we have just been experiencing? Where I live, we haven't had any rain
since last Sunday night and none is forecast until next Monday, yet I
can see some cows sitting down right now! And I don't believe that they
haven't sat down at anytime this week.

--
Malcolm (Skeptics 'R Us)

Malcolm wrote:

It is *very* commonly said, not least in the meedja every autumn, but is
completely without foundation, indeed biologically impossible!

In the northeastern U.S., the big winter prognosticator is the "woolly
worm" AKA "woolly bear," a black and yellow striped caterpillar whose
stripe widths predict the harshness of the upcoming winter, Unfortunately,
no two are alike, and nobody can agree on which stripe, wide or narrow,
means what. But come this fall, the subject will beaten to death again.
I'm a "play it as it lays" kind of guy myself...


Gary Woods AKA K2AHC- PGP key on request, or at www.albany.net/~gwoods
Zone 5/6 in upstate New York, 1200' elevation. NY WO G

"Malcolm" wrote in a message:

In article Bill Brewer writes,

"If the ash before the oak, we're in
for a soak, if the oak before the ash, we're in for a splash". Works more
often than not in foretelling the weather for the coming summer.
-----------------------
Malcolm, check the saying out for a few years and you might be surprised to
find that it has some validity. I did say that it, "works more often than
not". Don't ask me why.

With regard to humans suffering rheumatism, " from an early age". Many young
people DO. I have had much experience of school children having the often
crippling disease.

I had charge of 40 Guernsey cows and 2 bulls that would always sit down in
the fields before the onset of rain, it happened more often than not to be
sheer coincidence. As you no doubt know, rheumatism is a disease of the
joints brought on by wear, an accident or some other unrelated disease.
Overweight people are prone to rheumatics as are overweight cows. The
highest milk yield is the first milking of the day making the average cow a
heavy beast. The added weight of a full udder only adds to the animal's
discomfort and stress on the joints. Of course cows will sit down during the
day, but not all at the same time. Cows "cat nap" more often in the
afternoon than the morning as they don't sleep right through the night as we
humans do.

Hey, isn't this supposed to be a gardening newsgroup?

Bill Brewer




As every dairy farmer knows, most cows from an early age, like many
humans,
suffer from rheumatism.

With respect, humans rarely suffer from rheumatism "from an early age".
I'm interested that you say that cows do. Why is that, do you think?

That is why they sit down in grassland before the
onset of rain. We have been able to produce cows that give very heavy
milk
yields, but not alas eradicate their rheumatics. That unfortunately for
the
cow is of secondary importance.

Hmm. How long before the rain do they sit down? How often do they sit
down and no rain appears? How much rain is needed to make them sit down?
Are you saying that they never sit down in periods of drought, such as
we have just been experiencing? Where I live, we haven't had any rain
since last Sunday night and none is forecast until next Monday, yet I
can see some cows sitting down right now! And I don't believe that they
haven't sat down at anytime this week.

--
Malcolm (Skeptics 'R Us)

In article , Bill
Brewer writes

"Malcolm" wrote in a message:

In article Bill Brewer writes,

"If the ash before the oak, we're in
for a soak, if the oak before the ash, we're in for a splash". Works more
often than not in foretelling the weather for the coming summer.
-----------------------
Malcolm, check the saying out for a few years and you might be surprised to
find that it has some validity. I did say that it, "works more often than
not". Don't ask me why.

Coincidence. No more and no less!

With regard to humans suffering rheumatism, " from an early age". Many young
people DO. I have had much experience of school children having the often
crippling disease.

That's very sad.

I had charge of 40 Guernsey cows and 2 bulls that would always sit down in
the fields before the onset of rain, it happened more often than not to be
sheer coincidence. As you no doubt know, rheumatism is a disease of the
joints brought on by wear, an accident or some other unrelated disease.

Among other things, including heredity.

Overweight people are prone to rheumatics as are overweight cows. The
highest milk yield is the first milking of the day making the average cow a
heavy beast. The added weight of a full udder only adds to the animal's
discomfort and stress on the joints. Of course cows will sit down during the
day, but not all at the same time. Cows "cat nap" more often in the
afternoon than the morning as they don't sleep right through the night as we
humans do.

Hey, isn't this supposed to be a gardening newsgroup?

Yep, indeed. And I'm a scientist who automatically questions sayings
such as yours and needs to see proof of them. In the case of the cows,
it is, at best, anecdotal and might be worth looking into more
scientifically.

--
Malcolm

"Mike" wrote in message
...
Why does cows lying down mean rain?

It may be an urban myth, but I've heard that it's only true for
thunderstorms. If lightning strikes the ground near a cow and it is standing
up, there can be enough electrical potential between the front and back legs
of the cow to kill it. If it's lying down the current takes a different
route and it's OK. Sounds far-fetched to me but you never know.

Martin

In article , Malcolm
writes

In article , Bill
Brewer writes

"Malcolm" wrote in a message:

In article Bill Brewer writes,

"If the ash before the oak, we're in
for a soak, if the oak before the ash, we're in for a splash". Works more
often than not in foretelling the weather for the coming summer.
-----------------------
Malcolm, check the saying out for a few years and you might be surprised to
find that it has some validity. I did say that it, "works more often than
not". Don't ask me why.

Coincidence. No more and no less!

Could be more than that. Could be that a particular type of summer
weather is more likely after a particular type of spring weather - ie
both leaf budding and summer weather bear a relationship to spring
weather.

Sounds improbable, though. Weather is more complicated than that.
--
Kay Easton

Edward's earthworm page:
http://www.scarboro.demon.co.uk/edward/index.htm

Kay Easton wrote:

Weather is more complicated than that.

Am I the only one here who takes a perverse glee in that?

The clear fact that _something_ in this world is, despite our best efforts,
unpredictable.
I remember not so long ago that the meteorologists were saying happily that
with new computer power and increased datapoints, the forecasts were
getting better and better.

Truth is, the only big improvement came when satellites provided data for
places of the earth only seen by passing pilots, and since the late 60s all
the computer horsepower available hasn't helped much.

I like that a lot... there's got to be some old Druids somewhere in the
family tree.

I just spotted an elephant in the garden, amidst the smaller "real"
garlics. Spring for sure, even in the chilly (former) American colonies.

Cheers, all!


Gary Woods AKA K2AHC- PGP key on request, or at www.albany.net/~gwoods
Zone 5/6 in upstate New York, 1200' elevation. NY WO G

In article , Kay Easton
writes
In article , Malcolm
writes

In article , Bill
Brewer writes

"Malcolm" wrote in a message:

In article Bill Brewer writes,

"If the ash before the oak, we're in
for a soak, if the oak before the ash, we're in for a splash". Works more
often than not in foretelling the weather for the coming summer.
-----------------------
Malcolm, check the saying out for a few years and you might be surprised to
find that it has some validity. I did say that it, "works more often than
not". Don't ask me why.

Coincidence. No more and no less!

Could be more than that. Could be that a particular type of summer
weather is more likely after a particular type of spring weather - ie
both leaf budding and summer weather bear a relationship to spring
weather.

Sounds improbable, though. Weather is more complicated than that.

The 'holy grail' of accurate long-range forecasting has been sought by
the Met Office with the aid of one of the world's most powerful
computers and has yet to be found. There are no such patterns as you
describe.

--
Malcolm

In message , Kay Easton
writes

Could be more than that. Could be that a particular type of summer
weather is more likely after a particular type of spring weather - ie
both leaf budding and summer weather bear a relationship to spring
weather.

Sounds improbable, though. Weather is more complicated than that.

I thought it was all to do with a butterfly flapping its wings in Hong
Kong?

(She asks - innocently:-))

Jill
--

http://www.bellsbarn.demon.co.uk
(Gardens, geraniums and photographs)

In article , Jill Bell
writes
In message , Kay Easton
writes

Could be more than that. Could be that a particular type of summer
weather is more likely after a particular type of spring weather - ie
both leaf budding and summer weather bear a relationship to spring
weather.

Sounds improbable, though. Weather is more complicated than that.

I thought it was all to do with a butterfly flapping its wings in Hong
Kong?

(She asks - innocently:-))

No, no. You've got that completely wrong. It's Chile, not Hong Kong.

--
Malcolm

Malcolm writes

In article , "If the ash before the oak, we're in
for a soak, if the oak before the ash, we're in for a splash". Works more
often than not in foretelling the weather for the coming summer.

BillBrewer writes

Err, it can't possibly work - ever! The leaf appearance time of trees is
to do with the past and current conditions and is nothing whatsoever to
do with the weather to come. How could it possibly be otherwise?

Leaf appearance **is** to do with things to come. Trees have been
selectively mutated for millions of years with preference going to those
that managed to get their leaves out synchronised with the right sort of
weather to make best use of them. Why should the different trees not be
aware of changes in magnetic field, pressure, temperature, humidity,
light levels and duration, changes in soil chemistry, and a host of
other things which are not immediately apparent to humans?

If you are a true scientist, you would first make the appropriate
collection of data, then propose a theory, then test that theory, then
modify it to explain the data, and keep doing it until your theory
matched observed reality.

Being a scientist or relying on the scientific method does **not mean**,
as the meejha would have it, that it can't work if you can't explain it,
or it can't work if those who say it does work can't explain why.
--
David
who is a scientist and also a Reiki healer who can't explain it

Weather is more complicated than that.

Jill Bell writes
I thought it was all to do with a butterfly flapping its wings in Hong
Kong?

(She asks - innocently:-))

Malcolm writes
No, no. You've got that completely wrong. It's Chile, not Hong Kong.


You're thinking about chaos theory, where a small change in one location
can have amazing knock-on effects at distant locations. Its a strange
branch of mathematics that explains why certain things can change to a
quite different state suddenly as a result of a small movement.

AFAIK the weather predictions are very susceptible to this sort of minor
event having unexpected knock-on results, though IIRC they make some 51
forecasts of how the northern hemisphere will change in any given day,
and then choose to report the pattern that appears 'most probable'. Thus
you now hear them give you probabilities for rain and so on. Bigger
computers, faster comms and more data have simply increased their
ability to do this within the right sorts of timescale.

However there are also books that will explain that local weather is
dependent on the feelings and moods of the people living there, and give
you chapter and verse as to how this works scientifically..... the only
problem is we do not currently have the means to investigate the methods
at this level of detail apparently......
--
David
when the sturm und drang of a
tidal topic recedes, you frequently end up with valuable flotsam.

In article , Dave
writes
Malcolm writes

In article , "If
the ash before the oak, we're in
for a soak, if the oak before the ash, we're in for a splash". Works more
often than not in foretelling the weather for the coming summer.

BillBrewer writes

Err, it can't possibly work - ever! The leaf appearance time of trees is
to do with the past and current conditions and is nothing whatsoever to
do with the weather to come. How could it possibly be otherwise?

Leaf appearance **is** to do with things to come.

Nonsense. All you are saying below is that it *might* be, without a
scrap of evidence. No *is* about it.

Trees have been
selectively mutated for millions of years with preference going to those
that managed to get their leaves out synchronised with the right sort of
weather to make best use of them. Why should the different trees not be
aware of changes in magnetic field, pressure, temperature, humidity,
light levels and duration, changes in soil chemistry, and a host of
other things which are not immediately apparent to humans?

And in what way can absolutely any of those parameters explain the
rainfall in the summer to come even if one believes that trees can alter
their physiology based upon them?

If you are a true scientist, you would first make the appropriate
collection of data, then propose a theory, then test that theory, then
modify it to explain the data, and keep doing it until your theory
matched observed reality.

Hmm. I was always taught to propose a theory first and *then* collect
some data to see if it was valid. That way, the data collected are
likely to be more relevant to the theory!

Being a scientist or relying on the scientific method does **not mean**,
as the meejha would have it, that it can't work if you can't explain it,
or it can't work if those who say it does work can't explain why.

No, but not relevant to the case in point as there is, as yet, no
evidence that it works so nothing needs explaining.

--
Malcolm