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#287
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
On Sun, 29 Dec 2002 10:29:58 +0000, Tim Lamb
wrote: In article , Torsten Brinch writes The pocket book is modestly priced:-) ISBN 0-9541201-0-8 (2001 edition) But you said the data was taken from John Nix 2002? 32nd edition (2002) September 2001. Copyright 2001. Take your pick! OK, I wanted to make sure what edition is the one with the potential data error. (Perhaps the editor reads this, or you or some other kind soul will alert him.) For the present, I suggest we ignore the '90 data point in the data set you posted, as an outlier, as was my immediate suggestion. This moots your question, what caused the '90 peak in the data, since there is no longer a '90 peak. But that is always the risk, when one makes inquires mainly based on a single data point. Ignoring the '90 data point, the striking feature we are left with is the increase of land values in tune with the McSharry reform. Perhaps we could give that some more attention, what say you? |
#288
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
On Sun, 29 Dec 2002 11:54:53 -0000, David P
wrote: In article , says... On Sat, 28 Dec 2002 20:12:39 -0000, David P wrote: I need to be slightly more careful than usual here. It may be said that the rent under an AHA is a more accurate representation of the agricultural value of the land. The rent has to have regard to the productive capacity of the land and its related earning capacity. In this respect I would suggest that it may be the best guide to where the value of purely agricultural land should lie. .. .. FPDSavills Estate Benchmark survey AHA rent settlements time series: (£/acre, cvt. read from graph) 1996: 47 1997: 52 1998: 65 1999: 68 2000: 65 2001: 62 2002: 58 Such indication of a relatively constant agricultural value of land is a surprising result, when other indicators indicate that farm profitability has dropped like a rock in the same period. I don't find it at all surprising. In the real world it costs the tenant to fight for a reduction in the rent he pays. He will have the costs of an Agent to stand and may also have to bear the whole or part cost of an Arbitration. This likely cost may mean it is not be worth his while pursuing an attempt to reduce the rent paid. Note also that the rent review cycle is 3 yearly - and that 99 - 2000 shows a very significant drop in rent. I am not sure you meant to write 2000 there. The drop from the peak in 1999 to 2002 is certainly significant, a 14 % drop relative to the peak rent in 1999. However, this came assumedly as a response to a 50 % drop of income from farming from 1996 to 1999. From what I have seen so far, I am unconvinced, that the AHA rents track the agricultural value significantly more accurately than land sales values. The response in either case seems to be biased, slow, and incomplete, and you point to some of the reasons this is so. I would like your opinion on why FBT rents appear to be tracking the agricultural value of land even more poorly than AHA rents. They would, if I understand the arrangement. come closer to open market values and be more frequently subject to renegotiations. |
#289
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
Torsten Brinch wrote in message ... On Sun, 29 Dec 2002 10:29:58 +0000, Tim Lamb wrote: In article , Torsten Brinch writes The pocket book is modestly priced:-) ISBN 0-9541201-0-8 (2001 edition) But you said the data was taken from John Nix 2002? 32nd edition (2002) September 2001. Copyright 2001. Take your pick! OK, I wanted to make sure what edition is the one with the potential data error. (Perhaps the editor reads this, or you or some other kind soul will alert him.) For the present, I suggest we ignore the '90 data point in the data set you posted, as an outlier, as was my immediate suggestion. This moots your question, what caused the '90 peak in the data, since there is no longer a '90 peak. But that is always the risk, when one makes inquires mainly based on a single data point. Ignoring the '90 data point, the striking feature we are left with is the increase of land values in tune with the McSharry reform. Perhaps we could give that some more attention, what say you? ignoring data that does not fit you preconceptions has a long and ignoble history, massaging the figures to fit is a traditional political pastime. It would be far more sensible to wonder whether land prices and rents, on a small heavily populated island, actually bear much relationship to agricultural profitability. Indeed the only reason for chosing these indirect measures of profitability is that the direct measures don't give you the answer that you want. -- Jim Webster "The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind" 'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami' |
#290
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
Torsten Brinch wrote in message ... On Sun, 29 Dec 2002 07:44:21 +0000 (GMT), ("David G. Bell") wrote: On Sunday, in article "Torsten Brinch" wrote: Such indication of a relatively constant agricultural value of land is a surprising result, when other indicators indicate that farm profitability has dropped like a rock in the same period. Now you know why Savills are referred to by some as the "Mayfair Mafia". "Overall investment returns from UK farmland have now out-paced equity returns over the last three, five and ten years. The annualised return to let land investments over the last ten years has been 12.6% per annum. Following three years of negative returns from 1985-87, which still depress the long term results, returns to farmland investments have been consistently positive, despite the adverse conditions for British agriculture. The inflation adjusted ten-year annualised real return to let land investments has been a remarkable 10.1% a year." (quoted from IPD UK Let Land Index 2002) which shows that let land investments show no real relationship to farm profitability. -- Jim Webster "The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind" 'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami' |
#291
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
"Gordon Couger" wrote in message news:TCwP9.487472$WL3.127241@rwcrnsc54... We can get along fine with out clerks, barbers, and a great many service industries but we can't get along with out food. While the direct sales may only be less than one precent the industry that that is built on food, feed and fiber production one of the largests industrise in the world. You can't separerate faming from the rest of agri business. It comes as a set if you break one part it all sufferes. Exactly the way I see it! M |
#292
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
Michelle Fulton wrote in message .com... "Gordon Couger" wrote in message news:TCwP9.487472$WL3.127241@rwcrnsc54... We can get along fine with out clerks, barbers, and a great many service industries but we can't get along with out food. While the direct sales may only be less than one precent the industry that that is built on food, feed and fiber production one of the largests industrise in the world. You can't separerate faming from the rest of agri business. It comes as a set if you break one part it all sufferes. Exactly the way I see it! ah but that isn't a european perspective. In Europe at the moment the chattering classes seem to have a problem with agriculture, our current UK government does seem to have a strong dislike for the whole sordid business. There is some discussion as to why they have this attitude, a lot of it is probably a hang up from the old class war politics, some of it might be that it is an industry they cannot control because they cannot afford to police it , and reality always steps in anyway. Who knows -- Jim Webster "The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind" 'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami' M |
#293
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
"Jim Webster" wrote in message ... ah but that isn't a european perspective. In Europe at the moment the chattering classes seem to have a problem with agriculture, our current UK government does seem to have a strong dislike for the whole sordid business. I suspect that they see it as a very difficult topic. Subsidese, world trade , environment and health make it a very thorny set of issues. So many interest groups that it is impossible to resolve and plenty of blame if anything goes wrong. There is some discussion as to why they have this attitude, a lot of it is probably a hang up from the old class war politics, some of it might be that it is an industry they cannot control because they cannot afford to police it , and reality always steps in anyway. I am not sure it is class war, I think a lot of working class folk in coal mining, motor industry etc are resentful that farming has been treated differently. At the end people see a pleasant environment and compare with their inner city conditions. Consider that a villiage near to London has the very rich and farmers living in it. Farmers live where the very rich choose to live. The rest is ignorance, many people do not know much about food production so their views are stereotypical. Most buy food and holidays in the same manner. The living standards of British farmers or Spanish hotel maids are probably of little thought to them. When you go out and buy that GPS bolt on goody for your tractor do you worry that most of the cost is born by the American taxpayer in maintaining the sattelites or that Chinese near - slave labour is exploited in it manufacture. I suspect you give it little thought and get on with your own difficulties and responsibilities. The rest of us tend to be the same, pop into Tescos and not think of how it all came to be there. |
#294
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
In article ,
says... On Sun, 29 Dec 2002 11:54:53 -0000, David P wrote: In article , says... On Sat, 28 Dec 2002 20:12:39 -0000, David P wrote: I need to be slightly more careful than usual here. It may be said that the rent under an AHA is a more accurate representation of the agricultural value of the land. The rent has to have regard to the productive capacity of the land and its related earning capacity. In this respect I would suggest that it may be the best guide to where the value of purely agricultural land should lie. .. .. FPDSavills Estate Benchmark survey AHA rent settlements time series: (£/acre, cvt. read from graph) 1996: 47 1997: 52 1998: 65 1999: 68 2000: 65 2001: 62 2002: 58 Such indication of a relatively constant agricultural value of land is a surprising result, when other indicators indicate that farm profitability has dropped like a rock in the same period. I don't find it at all surprising. In the real world it costs the tenant to fight for a reduction in the rent he pays. He will have the costs of an Agent to stand and may also have to bear the whole or part cost of an Arbitration. This likely cost may mean it is not be worth his while pursuing an attempt to reduce the rent paid. Note also that the rent review cycle is 3 yearly - and that 99 - 2000 shows a very significant drop in rent. I am not sure you meant to write 2000 there. Yep - typo, should have been 2002 From what I have seen so far, I am unconvinced, that the AHA rents track the agricultural value significantly more accurately than land sales values. The response in either case seems to be biased, slow, and incomplete, and you point to some of the reasons this is so. I also omitted to point out that the AHA rent is based on the productive capacity of the *land*. Most farms will have a dwelling on them. I would like your opinion on why FBT rents appear to be tracking the agricultural value of land even more poorly than AHA rents. They would, if I understand the arrangement. come closer to open market values and be more frequently subject to renegotiations. The reviews in FBT's can be very wide. The rents may be increased on say 5yrly cycles or whatever other cycle is agreed upon from the outset. Similarly they may be based, at review, on some totally artificial mechanism that was, again, agreed at the outset. It is my experience that the early FBT new lets were showing higher levels than the more recent FBT new lets. The is also the 'marginal cost' argument to consider. The adjoing farms may be on the point of running at less than the two men they currently have [say i.5 men]. It can be difficult to employ just the 0.5 when he is needed. Hence, to retain the second full man they take on extra land over which they can spread the costs of their present labour/machinery. -- David Visit http://www.farm-direct.co.uk for your local farmgate food supplies. FAQ's, Glossary, Farming Year and more! |
#296
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
Michael Saunby wrote in message ... So who will waste food, and how much will we have to pay them to do this? I can see a new tax might be needed. obviously this new tax will need more officials to both collect and monitor them, and will therefore create employment and will doubtless be "a good thing". -- Jim Webster "The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind" 'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami' Michael Saunby |
#297
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
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#298
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
"David G. Bell" wrote in message .. . There is a lot of potential for Special Circumstances. I've heard indirect reports of more than one case where a small piece of land on an FBT allowed two parts of a large farm to be connected without use of the public highway. One instance was a livestock farmer, and the shibboleth of "biosecurity" was mentioned. The other was arable, and there was expected to be a saving on vehicle insurance. FBTs are supposed to allow for all sorts of things, for example the use of land for non-agricultural or at least non-traditional uses. I thought that theory was that such things as Car Boot sales, equestrian centres etc could be built in as part of the tenancy of the farm, while still continuing to be a farm and predominantly agricultural operation. -- Jim Webster "The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind" 'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami' |
#299
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
On Sun, 29 Dec 2002 16:57:56 -0000, David P
wrote: In article , says... From what I have seen so far, I am unconvinced, that the AHA rents track the agricultural value significantly more accurately than land sales values. The response in either case seems to be biased, slow, and incomplete, and you point to some of the reasons this is so. I also omitted to point out that the AHA rent is based on the productive capacity of the *land*. Most farms will have a dwelling on them. Sorry, please can you rephrase/expound? I would like your opinion on why FBT rents appear to be tracking the agricultural value of land even more poorly than AHA rents... The reviews in FBT's can be very wide. The rents may be increased on say 5yrly cycles or whatever other cycle is agreed upon from the outset. Similarly they may be based, at review, on some totally artificial mechanism that was, again, agreed at the outset. It is my experience that the early FBT new lets were showing higher levels than the more recent FBT new lets. [That is correct. From the data I have seen, it can well be argued that the FBT rents in the most recent year appear to track the agricultural value of land no worse than AHA rents.] The is also the 'marginal cost' argument to consider. The adjoing farms may be on the point of running at less than the two men they currently have [say i.5 men]. It can be difficult to employ just the 0.5 when he is needed. Hence, to retain the second full man they take on extra land over which they can spread the costs of their present labour/machinery. Thank you for your comments to the FBT question. To get back to our line of inquiry, might it have had an adverse effect on UK farm profitability to 2002, that land rents have been kept at or close to historic high levels, while farm income fortunes dropped to scraping the bottom? |
#300
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UK farm profitability to jun 2002
In article ,
says... On Sun, 29 Dec 2002 16:57:56 -0000, David P wrote: In article , says... From what I have seen so far, I am unconvinced, that the AHA rents track the agricultural value significantly more accurately than land sales values. The response in either case seems to be biased, slow, and incomplete, and you point to some of the reasons this is so. I also omitted to point out that the AHA rent is based on the productive capacity of the *land*. Most farms will have a dwelling on them. Sorry, please can you rephrase/expound? Elementary my dear Watson. A farm comprises, in the main, land and dwellings. The rent has regard to both the dwelling and the land. The land value is 'restricted' by having regard to its productive capacity. There is no such restriction imposed when considering the value of the dwelling. Residential values have been rising quite dramatically in the UK. To get back to our line of inquiry, might it have had an adverse effect on UK farm profitability to 2002, that land rents have been kept at or close to historic high levels, while farm income fortunes dropped to scraping the bottom? Yes. If we are talking of tenanted farms/land. No. If we are talking of freehold farms/land as they have no rent burden to carry. -- David Visit http://www.farm-direct.co.uk for your local farmgate food supplies. FAQ's, Glossary, Farming Year and more! |
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