In article 1egT9.3736$xE1.541894@stones, Jill news@REMOVETHISkintalin
e.plus.com writes
But you condemn all farmers as whingers

Nope.
--
Cheers
Dave

Dave Roberts wrote in message
...
In article , Jim Webster
writes

Dave Roberts wrote in message
Surely voluntary bankruptcy is the only realistic option for a
business
in this sort of state. Hanging on to see if things are better in
ten
years doesn't sound like a sound strategy.

Tough break I know...........


remember they are the children and grandchildren of people who did
exactly the same thing. You tend to think in long term cycles.
I wouldn't say they are right, but voluntary bankruptcy doesn't give
them a lot while survival would.

I would have thought that remains to be seen. It could be a case that
it
would be better to cut your losses.

Only time will tell, Beckett and Haskins have been making fairly
upbeat
noises but then they would do wouldn't they ?

well they are both pretty irrelevant.

The big thing at the moment is the euro is rising against the £.
Also if retail sales are back then the £ could take something of a fall.
If we are going into a depression of any sort, the level of the £ is
going to make things worse, because so much food is no longer produced
here, we have exported production of a lot over the last three or four
years.


Getting out of farming at the right time would appear to be a tough
judgement to make.

very few have ever done it. The best rule was get out the year after the
war ends but that broke down in 1945.


--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'



Cheers
Dave

--

Dave Roberts wrote in message
...
In article , David G.
Bell
writes
On Wednesday, in article

"Dave Roberts" wrote:
Tough break I know...........

But look at the point Jim makes about being "voluntarily homeless".
Since the usual long-term farm tenancy automatically ceases in the
event
of bankrupty, and the house is part of the farm...
Which is why I said tough break.

The only way out would seem to be a move to rented accommodation and
voluntary redundancy with a short term future at the mercy of the
benefit system.

what voluntary redundancy? They are self employeed remember. if they are
lucky and the landlord wants rid of them he might buy them out (if he
gets offered development) but the best they can hope for is that he
waives delapidations


--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'

Dave Roberts wrote in message
...
In article , David G.
Bell
writes
Hindsight helps, of course, and getting out a couple of years ago
would
be better than getting out now, but just imagine starting the process
a
couple of months before FMD...

I think this boils down to a question of timing to maximise your exit
point.

Nevertheless I still maintain it is not impossible to get out of
farming, or change direction, but would concede that to do so is not
easy to time perfectly.

not impossible but awfully complicated.
We have a lot of the same ties as non-farmers, plus extra ones. For
example, It was suggested I apply for a particular job. Trouble is
daughter is just at the wrong stage of GCSEs to change school.
That is something that virtually everyone can face at one time or
another. But on top of that a farmer can be tied into tenancy
agreements.


--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'

Cheers
Dave

--

Dave Roberts wrote in message
...
In article , Jim Webster
writes
The costs forced on the business by
poor phone connection, poor roads etc are significant.

Just how bad is your phone connection !

well some days we have to put the phone down because the house down the
lane are on the line and we can hear their conversation. Basically if
things get more than a certain level of wet the short length of buried
cable starts playing up and BT are not going to replace that length of
cable.
I have had to work at internet speeds of 2400.

or come to that roads.

I'm not trying to be awkward here, just wondering how these represent
'significant' business costs.

Well I cannot accept 20 tonne artics but have to take 15 tonners.
Therefore this years maize gluten cost me £5 a ton more. That is £225
just on one particular thing.
Same when we were shipping cattle in or out. We couldn't use a big
wagon, had to hire smaller ones, make two trips.
Just on wagon access I suspect it could cost us about £1000 a year.


I have a normal phone connection that is pretty good on the whole.
Haven't lost use of it in six years anyway.

In my business broadband would be very useful for sending digital
pictures to clients, it would also improve the service I could give
them. Lack of it is a nuisance but it would cost more to have it. Not
sure that it would be cheaper than using the post so can't say lack of
it causes me a significant business cost.

The government is insisting on wanting us to submit stuff on line. I
tried to download some data from the BCMS one night, and what should
have taken perhaps a quarter an hour took over 45 minutes.

Roads around here are pretty bad. Single track roads in and out of the
village which aren't too bad though keeping your car clean is
impossible. As soon as you get on to the dual track roads you have to
run the gauntlet of folk driving in the middle of the road because the
edges are in a dreadful state, all potholes.

Again it doesn't cause me a significant business expense.


My £1000 didn't include extra wear on vehicles etc.
--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'


Cheers
Dave

--
Cheers
Dave

In article , Jim Webster
writes
what voluntary redundancy? They are self employeed remember. if they are
lucky and the landlord wants rid of them he might buy them out (if he
gets offered development) but the best they can hope for is that he
waives delapidations
Sorry, voluntary bankruptcy.

Been up most of the night watching the cricket zzzzzzz.......
--
Cheers
Dave

On Thu, 9 Jan 2003 15:41:34 -0000, "Michael Saunby"
wrote:


"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 9 Jan 2003 11:20:46 -0000, "Michael Saunby"
wrote:
"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
.. in some areas
of Liverpool or Birmingham more than half of households have managed
to cut their total annual living expenses to less than £10,000.

I imagine that all such households are heavily subsidised snip

Quantify your claim.

I expect all households where one or more person receives income support
will snip

Michael, it should be easy, a one liner, to quantify that claim.

On Thursday, in article

"Bootlaces" wrote:

"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message

snip
Cash Income distribution, all farms
HHHHHHHHHHHH £0 (12%)
HHHHHHHHHH £0-£5,000 (10%)
HHHHHHHHHH £5,000-£10,000 (10%)
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH £10,000-£20,000 (20%)
HHHHHHHHHHHHHH £20,000-£30,000 (14%)
HHHHHHHHH £30,000-£40,000 (9%)
HHHHHHH £40,000-£50,000 (7%)
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH £50,000+ (19%)
Average Cash Income £31,462 per farm

I appear to have a problem with the summation of the %ages - they add up to
101.

Not a problem -- it's a common consequence of rounding-off percentages.

Sorry if I've missed something as I haven't been paying that much attention
to this thread, but...

Are there any actual absolute numbers rather than %ages?

Is there any finer detail on the £50k+ section?

Checking the figures in Nix for the distribution of farm size, the GBP
50k section is more than the number of farms over 100 Ha. It's not at
all clear that there is a reliable mapping between Cash Income and size,
but GBP 500 per Hectare seems pretty good going.

Just putting off a tractor replacement for a year could be worth GBP 25k
on Cash Income, which is one reason why I'm sceptical about this as an
indicator of long term prospects.


--
David G. Bell -- SF Fan, Filker, and Punslinger.

"Let me get this straight. You're the KGB's core AI, but you're afraid
of a copyright infringement lawsuit over your translator semiotics?"
From "Lobsters" by Charles Stross.

On Thursday, in article
"Jim Webster" wrote:

Dave Roberts wrote in message
...

Getting out of farming at the right time would appear to be a tough
judgement to make.

very few have ever done it. The best rule was get out the year after the
war ends but that broke down in 1945.

Jim, you ought to know better than that. There was a brief illusion of
peace, but there was a war until about 1989.

The rule still makes sense.


--
David G. Bell -- SF Fan, Filker, and Punslinger.

"Let me get this straight. You're the KGB's core AI, but you're afraid
of a copyright infringement lawsuit over your translator semiotics?"
From "Lobsters" by Charles Stross.

On Thursday, in article
"Jim Webster" wrote:

Dave Roberts wrote in message
...
In article , David G.
Bell
writes
On Wednesday, in article

"Dave Roberts" wrote:
Tough break I know...........

But look at the point Jim makes about being "voluntarily homeless".
Since the usual long-term farm tenancy automatically ceases in the
event
of bankrupty, and the house is part of the farm...
Which is why I said tough break.

The only way out would seem to be a move to rented accommodation and
voluntary redundancy with a short term future at the mercy of the
benefit system.

what voluntary redundancy? They are self employeed remember. if they are
lucky and the landlord wants rid of them he might buy them out (if he
gets offered development) but the best they can hope for is that he
waives delapidations

And, if you check out an AHA tenancy, some of the current "good ideas",
such as min-till, risk being considered dilapidations.


--
David G. Bell -- SF Fan, Filker, and Punslinger.

"Let me get this straight. You're the KGB's core AI, but you're afraid
of a copyright infringement lawsuit over your translator semiotics?"
From "Lobsters" by Charles Stross.

"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 9 Jan 2003 15:41:34 -0000, "Michael Saunby"
wrote:


"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 9 Jan 2003 11:20:46 -0000, "Michael Saunby"
wrote:
"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
.. in some areas
of Liverpool or Birmingham more than half of households have
managed
to cut their total annual living expenses to less than £10,000.

I imagine that all such households are heavily subsidised snip

Quantify your claim.

I expect all households where one or more person receives income support
will snip

Michael, it should be easy, a one liner, to quantify that claim.


Torsten, I can't even see why the question might arise. Do you not believe
that such households are heavily subsidised? Where else might our taxes go?

As for quantifying - the UK spends about 2,000 per adult on social security
payments. If we take it that roughly 50% of the population pay, and the
other 50% receive, then your lowest spending 50% are already in receipt of,
on average, 4k per adult. The other benefits they receive in education and
health provision are roughly matched to these, but everyone - rich and poor
gets the same. So they get 4k each in spending money and at least another
2k in free services - some will get a great deal more.

Not that I mind paying taxes to help these folks out, but it's stupid to
imagine that they somehow represent the true cost of living in the UK.

Michael Saunby

Dave Roberts wrote in message
...
In article , Jim Webster
writes
what voluntary redundancy? They are self employeed remember. if they
are
lucky and the landlord wants rid of them he might buy them out (if he
gets offered development) but the best they can hope for is that he
waives delapidations
Sorry, voluntary bankruptcy.

fair enough, but remember they might have to wait to be evicted because
otherwise they are voluntarily homeless.


--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'

"David G. Bell" wrote in message
.. .
On Thursday, in article
"Jim Webster" wrote:

Dave Roberts wrote in message
...

Getting out of farming at the right time would appear to be a
tough
judgement to make.

very few have ever done it. The best rule was get out the year after
the
war ends but that broke down in 1945.

Jim, you ought to know better than that. There was a brief illusion
of
peace, but there was a war until about 1989.

The rule still makes sense.

true, absolutely true


--
Jim Webster

"The pasture of stupidity is unwholesome to mankind"

'Abd-ar-Rahman b. Muhammad b. Khaldun al-Hadrami'



--
David G. Bell -- SF Fan, Filker, and Punslinger.

"Let me get this straight. You're the KGB's core AI, but you're afraid
of a copyright infringement lawsuit over your translator semiotics?"
From "Lobsters" by Charles Stross.

On Thu, 9 Jan 2003 18:22:51 -0000, "Michael Saunby"
wrote:


"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 9 Jan 2003 15:41:34 -0000, "Michael Saunby"
wrote:


"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 9 Jan 2003 11:20:46 -0000, "Michael Saunby"
wrote:
"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
.. in some areas
of Liverpool or Birmingham more than half of households
have managed to cut their total annual living expenses
to less than £10,000.

I imagine that all such households are heavily subsidised snip

Quantify your claim.

.. at least another 2k in free services snip

Thanks. By which method is your claim falsifiable?

"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 9 Jan 2003 18:22:51 -0000, "Michael Saunby"
wrote:


"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 9 Jan 2003 15:41:34 -0000, "Michael Saunby"
wrote:


"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 9 Jan 2003 11:20:46 -0000, "Michael Saunby"
wrote:
"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message
.. .
.. in some areas
of Liverpool or Birmingham more than half of households
have managed to cut their total annual living expenses
to less than £10,000.

I imagine that all such households are heavily subsidised snip

Quantify your claim.

.. at least another 2k in free services snip

Thanks. By which method is your claim falsifiable?

1.