Froma friend in the energy industry:

I found this on a website at work:
Weathermen put the UK on 'amber alert'
The Met Office has put the UK energy industry on 'amber alert' for a
colder than average winter.

It has written to energy companies and many other contingency
planners because, it says, "a prolonged, severe winter is one of the
biggest
threats to the efficient day-to-day running of the country".

According to the weather experts, the long-range forecast signals a
dry winter across much of the UK.

Since 1995-96, winters in the UK have been mild, giving many the
impression that mild winters are now the norm. Even an average winter
could
come as a surprise to many, says the Met Office, which is now based in
Devon.


pk

Ah. Now down in Devon!! Back to the Seaweed routine eh?

If they are unable to forecast with much accuracy a month ahead, how can
they all of a sudden predict a bad winter? Wait and watch by next Spring you
will know the answer, not that I will be here for all the winter.

Mike


"p.k." wrote in message
...
Froma friend in the energy industry:

I found this on a website at work:
Weathermen put the UK on 'amber alert'
The Met Office has put the UK energy industry on 'amber alert' for a
colder than average winter.

It has written to energy companies and many other contingency
planners because, it says, "a prolonged, severe winter is one of the
biggest
threats to the efficient day-to-day running of the country".

According to the weather experts, the long-range forecast signals a
dry winter across much of the UK.

Since 1995-96, winters in the UK have been mild, giving many the
impression that mild winters are now the norm. Even an average winter
could
come as a surprise to many, says the Met Office, which is now based in
Devon.


pk

Methinks they are predicting a blocking situation with persistent easterlies
bring cold,dry weather to the south of England but milder conditions
elsewhere.

This has been discussed on the uk.sci.weather newsgroup under the thread of
'Winter Forecast'.
________________
Nick G


"p.k." wrote in message
...
Froma friend in the energy industry:

I found this on a website at work:
Weathermen put the UK on 'amber alert'
The Met Office has put the UK energy industry on 'amber alert' for a
colder than average winter.

It has written to energy companies and many other contingency
planners because, it says, "a prolonged, severe winter is one of the
biggest
threats to the efficient day-to-day running of the country".

According to the weather experts, the long-range forecast signals a
dry winter across much of the UK.

Since 1995-96, winters in the UK have been mild, giving many the
impression that mild winters are now the norm. Even an average winter
could
come as a surprise to many, says the Met Office, which is now based in
Devon.


pk

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
Methinks they are predicting a blocking situation with persistent
easterlies
bring cold,dry weather to the south of England but milder conditions
elsewhere.

This has been discussed on the uk.sci.weather newsgroup under the thread
of
'Winter Forecast'.
________________


Between early Jan and end of March please :-))

Mike

Mike wrote:

"Nick G" wrote in message
...

Methinks they are predicting a blocking situation with persistent

easterlies

bring cold,dry weather to the south of England but milder conditions
elsewhere.

This has been discussed on the uk.sci.weather newsgroup under the thread

of

'Winter Forecast'.
________________



Between early Jan and end of March please :-))

Mike


Is that like the warning for the long heatwave forecast for this Summer?
If they cannot get today or tomorrow correct what chance the next few
months?

Between early Jan and end of March please :-))

Mike


Is that like the warning for the long heatwave forecast for this Summer?
If they cannot get today or tomorrow correct what chance the next few
months?


No. What I am saying is that if the UK is to have cold and snow and winds
etc, between early January and the end of March please. I won't be here :-))
Jack ;-)

Mike

In article ,
Broadback writes:
|
| Is that like the warning for the long heatwave forecast for this Summer?

Yes.

| If they cannot get today or tomorrow correct what chance the next few
| months?

Some meterologists are extremely proud of those forecasts because,
in the past few years, they have started to be more reliable than
listening to the oldest inhabitant of the local pub. Others feel
that the difference in reliability is small.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

"Nick Maclaren" wrote in message
...

In article ,
Broadback writes:
|
| Is that like the warning for the long heatwave forecast for this
Summer?

Yes.

| If they cannot get today or tomorrow correct what chance the next few
| months?

Some meterologists are extremely proud of those forecasts because,
in the past few years, they have started to be more reliable than
listening to the oldest inhabitant of the local pub. Others feel
that the difference in reliability is small.


I read somewhere that if you forecast every day that tomorrows weather would
be the same as todays, you would have a success rate comparable with the
forecasts on TV.


Steve.

In article ,
"shazzbat" writes:
|
| I read somewhere that if you forecast every day that tomorrows weather would
| be the same as todays, you would have a success rate comparable with the
| forecasts on TV.

It's not been true since the 1960s, in the UK, and the forecasts
have got streets better since the satellites went up. It was
true up until then.

It is still close to true in East Anglia, if you restrict it to
rainfall at a particular point. The total lack of topography
means that most rainfall is random. But, even with that, it is
no longer fair.

I believe that the current correct phrasing is that you can
predict the weather at anything over a month or so ahead just as
well as the forecasts by saying "the same as last year".


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

In article , shazzbat
writes


I read somewhere that if you forecast every day that tomorrows weather would
be the same as todays, you would have a success rate comparable with the
forecasts on TV.

Not quite. The probability of tomorrow's weather being the same as
today's is in the region of 67%. This means the forecasters have the
challenging task of improving and getting the forecast into the rather
narrow gap between 67% and 100% - ie, don't be too scathing, it's a
difficult task they have there. It's always easy to improve something if
it's really bad to start with, less easy to improve something which is
already rather good.
--
Kay
"Do not insult the crocodile until you have crossed the river"

Kay wrote:
In article , shazzbat
writes


I read somewhere that if you forecast every day that tomorrows
weather would be the same as todays, you would have a success rate
comparable with the forecasts on TV.

Not quite. The probability of tomorrow's weather being the same as
today's is in the region of 67%. This means the forecasters have
the
challenging task of improving and getting the forecast into the
rather
narrow gap between 67% and 100% - ie, don't be too scathing, it's a
difficult task they have there. It's always easy to improve
something
if it's really bad to start with, less easy to improve something
which is already rather good.

What interests me about these discussions is people's expectations.
The daily weather forecasts are indeed pretty good, and even the
weekly ones aren't a waste of time. But the long-range jobs are at
the cutting (or should that be "blunt"?) edge of science: they ought,
perhaps, to be more often and more explicitly presented as the rather
exciting experiment they are. Recent TV brings to my mind the way in
which the Soviets kept quiet about their space efforts till they were
successful, while the Americans -- for equally good reasons --
carried theirs out in front of the world's press.

--
Mike.

SNIP

Recent TV brings to my mind the way in
which the Soviets kept quiet about their space efforts till they were
successful, while the Americans -- for equally good reasons --
carried theirs out in front of the world's press.


It's good isn't it? what last nights episode brought to mind for me was
being trooped out of my primary school to stand on the corner of the road
and wave as Yuri Gagarin drove by on his visit to Manchester.

I'll never forget that.

Steve

You mean like predicting that second week or so in september will see high
winds and rain,?
or like 10th to 15th december will see cold snap or like saying second or
third week in february will see very cold snap ? or like saying 10th to
20th july will see hot weather and near cloudless skies for about 3 to 4
days ?
It's easy to [prdict september weather cus warm spell is followed by wet and
windy spell as trails of cloud spin off across the atlantic from tropical
storms hitting USA and following east coast then cross to us. This follows
tropical storm/hurricane season across the pond.
Nevertheless, thanks for warning will bring lilies in containers into
greenhouse for protection.

regards
Cineman

"p.k." wrote in message
...
Froma friend in the energy industry:

I found this on a website at work:
Weathermen put the UK on 'amber alert'
The Met Office has put the UK energy industry on 'amber alert' for a
colder than average winter.

It has written to energy companies and many other contingency
planners because, it says, "a prolonged, severe winter is one of the
biggest
threats to the efficient day-to-day running of the country".

According to the weather experts, the long-range forecast signals a
dry winter across much of the UK.

Since 1995-96, winters in the UK have been mild, giving many the
impression that mild winters are now the norm. Even an average winter
could
come as a surprise to many, says the Met Office, which is now based in
Devon.


pk

shazzbat wrote:
SNIP

Recent TV brings to my mind the way in
which the Soviets kept quiet about their space efforts till they
were
successful, while the Americans -- for equally good reasons --
carried theirs out in front of the world's press.


It's good isn't it? what last nights episode brought to mind for me
was being trooped out of my primary school to stand on the corner
of
the road and wave as Yuri Gagarin drove by on his visit to
Manchester.

I'll never forget that.

Lucky! (But I did buy his record, and still have it.) One of the rare
cases in which competition really _did_ produce more results than
cooperation would have! (I remember the Express -- I think it was --
had a front-page cartoon of two old biddies gazing with approval: "My
dear, I declare that this Major Gagarin is _quite_ as fascinating as
that Monsieur Bleriot!")

"I aim for ze stars...but sometimes I hit London."

--
Mike.

"Mike Lyle" wrote in message
...
shazzbat wrote:
SNIP

Recent TV brings to my mind the way in
which the Soviets kept quiet about their space efforts till they
were
successful, while the Americans -- for equally good reasons --
carried theirs out in front of the world's press.


It's good isn't it? what last nights episode brought to mind for me
was being trooped out of my primary school to stand on the corner
of
the road and wave as Yuri Gagarin drove by on his visit to
Manchester.

I'll never forget that.

Lucky! (But I did buy his record, and still have it.) One of the rare
cases in which competition really _did_ produce more results than
cooperation would have! (I remember the Express -- I think it was --
had a front-page cartoon of two old biddies gazing with approval: "My
dear, I declare that this Major Gagarin is _quite_ as fascinating as
that Monsieur Bleriot!")

"I aim for ze stars...but sometimes I hit London."

I liked that line. But tell me about Gagarins record please. I didn't even
know he'd made a record.

Steve