There are rumours among meterological types that it might be a cold
hard winter (latitude of north atlantic wave, seawater temperature
differentials, Canadian jetstream direction, etc.) and I wondered if
anyone on the group had any views?

It's certainly a good year for berries round here, which is one of the
oldest of old men's tales. But I've noticed that we no longer get
seagulls inland when storms occur, so maybe the old wisdom is dented?

ANyone got twinges in thier corns, early/late plant dormancy, earliest
frosts, insects hibernating or any other suggestions about what lies
ahead?

The message
from (Robert E A Harvey) contains these words:

There are rumours among meterological types that it might be a cold
hard winter (latitude of north atlantic wave, seawater temperature
differentials, Canadian jetstream direction, etc.) and I wondered if
anyone on the group had any views?

'Fraid not.

It's certainly a good year for berries round here, which is one of the
oldest of old men's tales. But I've noticed that we no longer get
seagulls inland when storms occur, so maybe the old wisdom is dented?

Plenty of seagulls round here when the weather's bad - but then I'm only
forty or so miles from the coast.

ANyone got twinges in thier corns, early/late plant dormancy, earliest
frosts, insects hibernating or any other suggestions about what lies
ahead?

A lot of bulbs are coming up, and I've seen cabbage whites laying eggs
up to last week. Viburnum tinus is in flower, whereas when I was a yoof,
the flowers were mainly in bud at Christmas. (And it was called Laurus
tinus then, TAAAW. Perhaps it's got confused?)

--
Rusty
Open the creaking gate to make a horrid.squeak, then lower the foobar.
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/hi-fi/

In article ,
Malcolm writes:
| In article , Robert E A
| Harvey writes
| There are rumours among meterological types that it might be a cold
| hard winter (latitude of north atlantic wave, seawater temperature
| differentials, Canadian jetstream direction, etc.) and I wondered if
| anyone on the group had any views?
|
| It's certainly a good year for berries round here, which is one of the
| oldest of old men's tales. But I've noticed that we no longer get
| seagulls inland when storms occur, so maybe the old wisdom is dented?
|
| ANyone got twinges in thier corns, early/late plant dormancy, earliest
| frosts, insects hibernating or any other suggestions about what lies
| ahead?
|
| Yes. Meteorologists are no better at predicting the type of winter we
| are going to have than the berry crop, gulls, insects, or anything else
| that is merely reacting to what's been before and not what is to come.

That's a LITTLE unfair - but only a little. The Met. Office has
refused to comment, saying that prediction that far ahead is too
hard. The circumstance under which it could be predicted pretty
reliably is if the North Atlantic Conveyor started failing. Then,
it wouldn't just be the next winter, but the summer after, and
the winter after that, and ....


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

"Robert E A Harvey" wrote in message
om...
There are rumours among meterological types that it might be a cold
hard winter (latitude of north atlantic wave, seawater temperature
differentials, Canadian jetstream direction, etc.) and I wondered if
anyone on the group had any views?

It's certainly a good year for berries round here, which is one of the
oldest of old men's tales. But I've noticed that we no longer get
seagulls inland when storms occur, so maybe the old wisdom is dented?

ANyone got twinges in thier corns, early/late plant dormancy, earliest
frosts, insects hibernating or any other suggestions about what lies
ahead?

The weather men can not give an accurate forecast for a particular spot for
12 hours ahead I don't think I shall pay much attention to them for a whole
winter! and mild and cold mean different things to different people, I
thought last winter was the worst in 20 years, overall it may not have had
lots of cold days but it had the sharpest frost late on and it did the most
damage and I lost the most plants. wind wise it was however quite quiet with
only a couple of storms above 80 mph

--
Charlie, gardening in Cornwall.
http://www.roselandhouse.co.uk
Holders of National Plant Collection of Clematis viticella (cvs)

In article ,
Malcolm writes:
|
| The Met. Office has
| refused to comment, saying that prediction that far ahead is too
| hard. The circumstance under which it could be predicted pretty
| reliably is if the North Atlantic Conveyor started failing. Then,
| it wouldn't just be the next winter, but the summer after, and
| the winter after that, and ....
|
| But that prediction, too, would be based, as I said, on what's been
| before, even if rather a long time ago!

Not entirely. They actually simulated many of the effects before
they got around to looking for evidence of them in the field (or
under the sea, to be precise).


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

"Nick Maclaren" wrote in message
...

That's a LITTLE unfair - but only a little. The Met. Office has
refused to comment, saying that prediction that far ahead is too
hard. The circumstance under which it could be predicted pretty
snip
Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

Actually, on the BBC site, the reply from the Met Office was:

Met Office spokesman Dominic Woollartt told BBC News Online the longest
forecast they offered was four months, with one currently available up to
7 November.
When asked what the Met Office forecast could be for winter, he said: "We
expect temperatures to drop in winter".

He went on to add:

We prefer quality over quantity

But I think in this instance they failed on both counts.

--
Martin & Anna Sykes
( Remove x's when replying )
http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~sykesm

"Martin Sykes" wrote
That's a LITTLE unfair - but only a little. The Met. Office has
refused to comment, saying that prediction that far ahead is too
hard. snip

IME, there's always quite a bit of hype at this time of year about the
forthcoming winter and most of it turns out to be wildly inaccurate.

I do have to say that, at the moment, the professional forecasts for the
UK next week look unusually wintry for mid-October. For those of you who
are interested, there's a very good German meteorology site at:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/ and this covers Europe, including the UK.

As well as other high-quality information, the UK Met Office (UKMO)
forecast charts are on there at
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxbra.html and cover the period
up to + 132 hrs (click on the list towards the top of each page to see
each chart).

They need to be looked at with caution as they can change quickly,
particularly as one looks further ahead than the next day or two.

- Tom.

In article , Tom Bennett tom.bennett@mil
lermitchell.co.uk writes

I do have to say that, at the moment, the professional forecasts for the
UK next week look unusually wintry for mid-October. For those of you who
are interested, there's a very good German meteorology site at:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/ and this covers Europe, including the UK.

Last year there was a cold period at the start of October (IIRC) and
then a ridiculously warm winter until the 2nd half of February.

BTW, coldest winter of the 21st Century so far might mean a warmer than
average winter - IIRC, we've been having a run of mild winters.
--
Stewart Robert Hinsley

Robert E A Harvey wrote:
:: There are rumours among meterological types that it might be a cold
:: hard winter (latitude of north atlantic wave, seawater temperature
:: differentials, Canadian jetstream direction, etc.) and I wondered
:: if anyone on the group had any views?
::
:: It's certainly a good year for berries round here, which is one of
:: the oldest of old men's tales. But I've noticed that we no longer
:: get seagulls inland when storms occur, so maybe the old wisdom is
:: dented?
::
:: ANyone got twinges in thier corns, early/late plant dormancy,
:: earliest frosts, insects hibernating or any other suggestions
:: about what lies ahead?

Most of my bedding plants have put on a fresh show in the past 2 weeks, the
lobelias most noticeably were 'dead' - all yellow and dried up, now they are
a profusion of blue and purple flowers again, as are the verbenas.

"Robert E A Harvey" wrote in message
om...
There are rumours among meterological types that it might be a cold
hard winter (latitude of north atlantic wave, seawater temperature
differentials, Canadian jetstream direction, etc.) and I wondered
if
anyone on the group had any views?

The weather is essentially a chaotic dynamical system. I would place
exactly zero faith in such a long term forecast.

One week ahead is about as much as weather forecasters can expect to
produce moderately accurate predictions.

Franz

[snip]

Franz

"Robert E A Harvey" wrote in message
ANyone got twinges in thier corns, early/late plant dormancy, earliest
frosts, insects hibernating or any other suggestions about what lies
ahead?

Strangely over the last couple of weeks I've had a bunch of shoots spring up
in the front garden that I expected to see in the spring. Presume they'll
die as soon as frost hits though!




a

Tom wrote "........I do have to say that, at the moment, the
professional forecasts for the UK next week look unusually wintry for
mid-October. For those of you who are interested, there's a very good
German meteorology site at:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/ and this covers Europe, including the UK.
........."

I tend to use
http://www.maltairport.com/weather/page.asp?p=5472&l=1
where I use the Isobar charts and the satellite images, both of which cover
Europe including UK.


--
David Hill
Abacus nurseries
www.abacus-nurseries.co.uk